South Africa’s Current Electricity Situation

Electricity
situation — trends

South
Africa’s electricity crunch is becoming worse. Up until 31 December, the
average South African experienced a cumulative 35 days of blackouts in 2022, or
9.5% of the year. In 2023, it took just 129 days— until 9 May — to reach the
same, meaning that South Africans had spent 27% of the year without power by 9
May. The average loadshedding stage was 3.11 in 2022 but it already is almost 4
in 2023. Over the last two months, unplanned outages have averaged between 16
000 MW and 17 000 MW.

Electricity
situation — forecasts

Eskom’s
forward planning assumes unplanned outages at 15 000 MW – 16 500 MW per week
until the end of October 2023, then 13 000 MW – 14 500 MW through the end of
March 2024. But these unplanned outage assumptions are inherently uncertain. On
18 May, the interim Group CEO of Eskom, Calib Cassim, said that the risk of
Stage 8 loadshedding during the coming months was ‘extremely high’, should
unplanned outages surpass 18 000 MW. Eskom’s average available capacity per
week, after factoring in the reserve margin of 2 200 MW, unplanned outages, and
planned maintenance, is estimated to be around 26 500 MW during the winter.
Demand is forecast at up to 33 000 MW, leaving a shortfall of 6 500 MW which
will likely be periodically exceeded and may lead to Stage 8 (and higher)
loadshedding.

What
the Government and Eskom are saying

On
9 May, the Minister of Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, told members of
Parliament that because of Eskom’s 2 200 MW operating reserve, a national grid
collapse was ‘highly unlikely.’ On 16 May, Eskom issued official communication
refuting claims circulating on social media that a blackout was imminent,
saying it had an ‘extremely low likelihood of materialising’ and quoting Mr.
Cassim as saying that there were several controls in place and that he did not
lose any sleep over the issue.

Grid
collapse or not?

In assessing the
likelihood of a grid collapse, it is helpful to think of the chain of events
that would need to occur in sequence.

• First,
  unexpected outages and breakdowns in generation or transmission would have
  to occur quickly and at high levels, causing the electricity frequency on
  the grid to drop below minimum required levels. The correct frequency is
  50Hz. If the total number of power units on the grid is unable to provide
  enough electricity to meet the demand, and if additional units cannot be
  brought into production immediately, frequency will begin to drop. It is
  then essential to shed the load.

• Second,
  for the blackout cascade to continue, the standard mechanism for
  responding to demand- supply imbalances, namely loadshedding, would need
  to fail — for example, because not enough load could be shed fast enough.
  In other words, Eskom would not be able to implement the higher
  loadshedding stages needed to protect the grid.

• Third,
  without loadshedding, grid frequency would drop. If it dropped below a
  minimum threshold, the power stations would begin to shut themselves down
  automatically to protect themselves. With the first one down, the
  frequency would drop much faster. Another would shut down and this would
  make things worse. So would another and another in an accelerating
  cascade. Within a minute, every single station would shut down, or at any
  rate disconnect itself from the grid. The whole country would be in
  blackout, and it might take one to three weeks to start the system up
  again.

Although we consider this
a low-likelihood sequence of events, if it does occur, it will have a dramatic
impact. It would radically accelerate the underlying trends of citizens’
frustration with the government, as well as safety and security problems that
already afflict many citizens and businesses. Former Eskom CEO Andre de Ruyter
has said that it would be ‘in all likelihood, a monumental and unprecedented
national catastrophe that would threaten many lives’.

Despite the low
probability of a blackout occurring, we nonetheless advise clients to put
measures in place to protect their staff, operations, and equipment. Should it
occur, there would be very little advance warning. In your planning you may
want to consider some of the following headline categories:

Security

• Identify
  and prepare security personnel who will protect employees, as well as
  critical infrastructure and systems.
• Anticipate
  the possibility of riots and/or looting similar to that of July 2021.
• Work
  with government law enforcement (police and intelligence services), but do
  not rely on it.

Work

• Decide
  if employees must continue to report for work, and if so, until when.
• Plan
  for how to keep operations going, and if pausing operations, how and when
  to do so.

Fuel

• Prepare
  a fuel back-up, for instance, by keeping vehicle tanks filled. Rationing
  and shortages are very likely.
• Diesel
  especially could be in short supply as state use would be prioritised.
• If
  using gas for heating or food preparation, keep spare cylinders at hand.
• Unstable
  logistics and supply chains will have an impact on back-ups, e.g. in terms
  of diesel generators, due to fuel shortages.

Communications

• Prepare
  a communication back-up plan. Cell phone towers will only last for a
  certain number of hours on battery before they stop working.
• Working
  with local communities, establish pre-determined safe hubs where separated
  family members and colleagues should go if lines of digital or telephonic
  communication fail.
• Keep
  adequate cash on hand. During a blackout, ATMs, banking apps and online
  services would be unavailable for an extended period.

Water and waste water

• Anticipate
  water supply shut-offs (because pumping stations need electricity to
  work). Stock some drinking water; find out if neighbours are willing to
  share water (e.g. from tanks, boreholes, pools).
• Buy
  water purification tablets.
• Plan
  for sewage systems not working properly, with a potential impact on public
  health and hygiene (e.g. water-borne diseases).

Food

• Keep
  at hand some dry and tinned food that will last without refrigeration.
• Plan
  on how to dispose, safely and hygienically, of food that spoils when
  refrigeration begins to fail.

Medical

• Keep a basic medical
  kit available.
• If on chronic
  medication, try to obtain an emergency 2-3 week supply.

Social context

• Be
  mindful of the social impact a blackout would have. Hunger exacerbates
  frustration and feeds into protest/unrest action. A blackout will worsen
  the service delivery crisis, potentially fuelling political unrest and
  protests.
• Protests
  and riots are highly likely. Businesses should stand ready to implement
  the contingency plans they developed in the wake of July 2021. This must
  be done in active co-operation and association with local communities.

Conclusion

After 15 years of
practice, Eskom has become highly adept at using loadshedding to protect the
grid – a meagre comfort. We therefore view a grid collapse or national blackout
as highly unlikely, but not impossible (0.1-1%).

The situation is highly
fluid. A sharp increase in unplanned outages, for example as a breakdown of the
available open-cycle gas turbines or large-scale transmission disruptions,
could push things towards the blackout outcome. Such breakdowns could occur
through human action (e.g. operator error or intentional sabotage), natural
disasters or equipment failure. Because of the dramatic impact a blackout
scenario would have, we advise you to give it your attention and put in place
some preparatory measures.

Source – John Endres
and Chris Hattingh, Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA)