Governance & Politics – 13 May 2024

GOVERNANCE AND POLITICS

• Constitutional Court began hearing legal arguments on Friday on whether ex-president Jacob Zuma can run for parliament, a case whose outcome will affect a wide open national election on May 29 and could cause security problems if he loses. Zuma, 82, who was forced to quit as president in 2018 and was sentenced to jail in 2021, has fallen out with the ruling African National Congress and has been campaigning for a new party, uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK). (Source)

• An ANC-EFF coalition could heighten South Africa’s political-economic risk profile, raising the risk of corruption, unrest, and an unstable operational environment. This is according to research from Oxford Economics, which revealed the second of its four scenarios for South Africa’s general election on 29 May. In this scenario, the ANC’s share of the vote drops to 40%, meaning an arrangement with smaller parties is not enough to give it a legislative majority. Therefore, the current ruling party must make a deal with one of the two main opposition parties – the EFF or the DA – and chooses the EFF. The ANC-EFF coalition has over 230 seats in the National Assembly and is free to appoint the president and government that the member parties agree on. In the scenario, the ANC votes for the EFF’s choice of Parliament Speaker in return for the Fighters’ vote for President Cyril Ramaphosa to serve – or, at least, start – a second full term as president. The “radicals in the red berets” demand and obtain positions in the economic cluster to advance their agenda of using the state to drive development and create jobs. The ANC-EFF coalition also rules in Gauteng and KZN, while in the Western Cape, the coalition and other smaller parties oust the DA. The EFF would likely leave most governance to the ANC but prioritises a few policies in alignment with the more statist faction within the liberation movement. Oxford Economics senior political analyst Louw Nel said South Africa’s political-economic risk profile deteriorates in this scenario compared to the organisation’s baseline. (Source / Source)

• The government Bus Rapid Transit system is failing in most cities that received billions in funding to improve public transport. The project to provide efficient and reliable public transport started is going nowhere. Since 2008 R77 billion has been allocated to the programme and R55 billion has been spent. The department of transport says the project has been delayed by political instability in municipalities and mismanagement of funds, the luck of accountability, and the millions spent on consultants with no result. (Source)

• Parliament had its last meeting and sitting last week to conclude the sixth parliamentary term. On the agenda was the contentious Basic Education Laws Amendment Bill, which has faced opposition for its provisions on language policy at schools. Twenty bills await parliamentary consideration. Some of the bills still before the legislature have been under consideration for over 10 years. Also stuck are 19 out of 20 international treaties, including World Trade Organization fisheries subsidies and double tax abolition agreements. (Source)