Energy – 25 March 2024
ENERGY
- South Africans face a dark winter, with experts warning of prolonged periods at stage 6 load-shedding despite assurances from government officials that Eskom has turned a corner. In 2024, experts have warned that South Africans will face a repeat of stage 6 load-shedding in winter as the country’s electricity crisis does not have a quick fix, and Eskom’s performance has only deteriorated further. Energy expert Professor Hartmut Winkler said South Africans should brace for stage 6 load-shedding in winter due to Eskom having to conduct maintenance that cannot be postponed. Typically, Eskom conducts most maintenance in summer when demand is lower, and this maintenance takes off as the country heads into winter when it needs additional capacity. However, as shown in a report from German consultancy group VGBE Energy, maintenance at Eskom’s coal fleet is no longer postponable — it has to be done now and properly. (Source)
- Energy minister confident over winter. Minister of Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa told the National Assembly that the country will see winter with a good buffer from severe load-shedding. He said there has been planned maintenance of generation units during the summer period, and the planned outages will taper off at the end of March. He said although Eskom would not reach the 65% energy availability factor by the end of March, it is on course to reach 75% in a year from now.
- Gas could provide stable power supply. Anton Eberhard, emeritus professor in the Power Futures Lab at the University of Cape Town’s Graduate School of Business, says Eskom cannot easily be revived, and power procurements over the past five years have resulted in only 150MW being connected to the grid, when South Africa needs 6 000MW or 8 000MW of additional power now. Eberhard says there is a need to add more than wind and solar to the energy mix in the immediate future, including gas. The gas reserves in the Mozambican Pande and Temane fields are predicted to run out by 2030, and Sasol will terminate supplies to industrial users by 2026. He says if South Africa were to provide a more favourable enabling environment, then its resources off Mossel Bay and in the Orange River basin could also be developed, providing a flexible resource to complement the variability of solar and wind energy. (Source)
