Energy – 06 May 2024

ENERGY

• Eskom has achieved an energy availability factor (EAF) of over 65%, last seen in 2021, revealed electricity minister Kgosientsho “Sputla” Ramokgopa. EAF is a core performance metric for Eskom because it is directly linked to load-shedding. When the EAF declines, less power is available, which typically leads to load-shedding. Eskom’s EAF has been declining for years because of poor maintenance at power stations and increased breakdowns. However, Eskom’s EAF has been increasing in recent weeks, which has resulted in a load-shedding-free April. “Eskom achievement of an EAF of 65.5%, last attained in 2021, confirms the success of the aggressive maintenance-led recovery strategy,” Ramokgopa said. Ramokgopa celebrated the return of Medupi Unit 4 (800MW), Koeberg Unit 2 (980MW), and the synchronisation of Kusile Unit 6 (800MW). He said these three generation units will add 2,580 MW to the grid in the next six months, which will further help reduce load-shedding. South Africa’s rooftop solar rollout, which was incentivised through tax breaks, is set to reach 6,000 MW by the end of the year. (Source)

• South Africa’s much-delayed draft Gas Master Plan (GMP2024) has been released for public comment by Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe, amid indications that the gap between demand and supply will grow steeply from 2026 onwards when Sasol ceases to supply Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal industrial customers with gas imported from Mozambique. The document includes four scenarios, including a base case that shows that gas demand will far exceed supply in the short term and that the gap, which has been described as an anticipated ‘gas cliff’, will worsen as demand grows. It has also been published against the backdrop of an anticipated growth in gas-to-power generation, with a public procurement programme under way and Eskom also pursuing its own large-scale greenfield and diesel-to-gas conversion initiatives. The draft GMP2024 recommends that South Africa should focus on the importation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) over the short- to medium-term to meet demand and pursue regional supply options to mitigate the supply shortfall anticipated between 2026 and 2030. (Source)